Découvrez nos prévisions IR pour mars 2021.
La forte progression du taux d'intérêt américain à 10 ans depuis le début de cette année peut s'inscrire dans le cadre d’un épisode de reflation. Non seulement les anticipations d'inflation et les rendements des emprunts publics à plus long terme ont augmenté aux États-Unis, mais l'écart avec le Bund allemand est également remarquable.
Les principaux moteurs de ce mouvement sont la différence de rythme des vaccinations, la vague bleue accompagnée de stimuli fiscaux qui est devenue réalité après la victoire démocrate en Géorgie et le soutien monétaire continu offert par la Fed. Ces facteurs ont un impact sur la courbe des taux, poussant l'extrémité la plus longue à la hausse, tandis que le taux de base reste fortement ancré dans les prévisions de la Fed.
Pourtant, les pressions à la hausse des taux d'intérêt doivent être relativisées. Jerome Powell s'est dit à l’aise à propos de la perspective d'une hausse de l'inflation au deuxième trimestre à des niveaux supérieurs à 2 % et le FOMC s'est engagé à communiquer bien à l’avance les futurs changements de politique lors de la dernière réunion.
La BCE, en revanche, s’est montrée beaucoup plus préoccupée par la hausse des taux d'intérêt en mars. En raison des inquiétudes liées à la crise sanitaire et à la fragilité des indicateurs économiques, les rendements des obligations européennes à long terme ont néanmoins été tirés à la hausse en ligne avec ceux des États-Unis. La réponse de Christine Lagarde a donc été d'accélérer le rythme des achats de soutien au sein du PEPP.
Ci-dessous, nous examinons de plus près les éléments qui rendent la situation européenne et américaine si différente.
Bonne lecture !
Mattias Demets, Jean-Luc Célis et Anton Pietermans
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