Ontdek onze IR-vooruitzichten voor januari 2023.
In de tweede jaarhelft van 2022 waren de publicaties van inflatie-indices de economische data waar veruit de meeste aandacht naartoe ging. Zowel aan Europese als Amerikaanse zijde trachtten analisten te zoeken naar signalen die op een piek in het tempo van de prijsstijgingen konden wijzen.
Intussen lijkt – met dank aan de dalende energieprijzen en vanwege de afnemende vraag – die piek in inflatie bereikt. Toch wil dat niet zeggen dat er onmiddellijk een ommekeer in het beleid van de centrale banken moet worden verwacht. Met een krappe arbeidsmarkt en betere industriële vooruitzichten lijkt de economie nog niet meteen af te koelen. Bovendien heropent China in sneltempo en moeten we de impact daarvan op de grondstofprijzen nog voelen. Centrale bankiers zien dus de nood om de hardnekkige kerninflatie zo snel mogelijk de kop in te drukken.
Meer nog, de aanhoudende inflatie heeft ook enkele reuzen wakker gemaakt. Nadat de ECB het tijdperk van negatieve rente achter zich liet, begint ook de Japanse centrale bank voorzichtig aan de eerste stappen richting een strenger monetair beleid.
In deze publicatie gaan we dieper in op de aanpak van de Fed en de ECB en de gevolgen daarvan. Terwijl overheden fiscale maatregelen nemen om de pijn van de inflatie voor ondernemingen en gezinnen te verzachten, worden de financieringsvoorwaarden strenger. Daarnaast analyseren we de recente beslissing van de Bank of Japan om de voorwaarden voor Yield Curve Control te versoepelen en waarom de Japanse centrale bank – de laatste centrale bank die een negatieve beleidsrente hanteert – op die manier de rentecurve manipuleert.
Veel leesplezier,
Mattias Demets, Fiorenzo Mele, Mathilde Jamar, Lea Paleressompoulle en Anton Pietermans
Klik hier voor de volledige analyse
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