Ontdek onze IR-vooruitzichten voor juli 2020.
In maart en april was het alle hens aan dek bij de centrale banken. Het grote geschut werd bovengehaald om een economie die tot stilstand kwam te ondersteunen. Beleidsrentes werden binnen de G10 bijna op één lijn gebracht die niet veel hoger dan 0% ligt.
De lage rentes gaven de centrale bankiers de mogelijkheid om ongekende hoeveelheden van liquiditeiten te verstrekken. Aan overheden, grote ondernemingen, KMO’s en ook rechtstreeks naar gezinnen toe. Deze lage rentes lijken nog wel even aan te houden. Een toenemende werkloosheid beperkt de private vraag naar goederen en zet ook de olieprijs onder druk. Dit zorgt ervoor dat de inflatie erg laag blijft. Zolang dit het geval is, blijft de druk om de rente op te trekken laag. En zo lijkt er maar geen einde te komen aan het expansieve beleid dat het laatste decennium het nieuwe normaal geworden is.
Tegelijkertijd tracht de EU verder te kijken en beitelt het aan een herstelplan. Een gezamenlijke schulduitgave van de 27 lidstaten zou een unieke gebeurtennis zijn, die ook een sterk signaal van het blok zou uitsturen. Al is het nog maar de vraag of er een verzoening mogelijk is tussen de behoevende landen die reeds torenhoge schulden uitstaan hebben, en de lidstaten die hun begroting jaren op orde hebben. In ons ‘In the picture’ segment nemen we de vorderingen rond het Europees herstelfonds onder de loep.
Veel leesplezier!
Mattias Demets, Jean-Luc Célis en Anton Pietermans
Klik hier voor de volledige analyse
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