Ontdek onze FX-vooruitzichten van de maand october 2021.
De afgelopen maanden hebben vele fasen van hoop en bezorgdheid elkaar opgevolgd, die de markten zowel omhoog als omlaag hebben gedreven.
Ondanks de hoge vaccinatiegraad in Europa en de Verenigde Staten en het opheffen van de beperkingen in verband met de pandemie, hebben virusuitbraken die verband houden met de deltavariant aan de andere kant van de wereld hun weerslag op ons.
Centrale bankiers komen stilaan terug van hun overtuiging dat inflatie transitief zal blijken. Inflatie-indices overtreffen maand na maand de schattingen. Met name de knelpunten in de toeleveringsketens, maar ook de stijging van de energieprijzen door een meer dan beperkt aanbod liggen hier aan de basis van. Ten slotte zien we dat in China het tempo van de industriële productie ondermijnd wordt door onverwachte sluitingen in verband met de heropleving van de deltavariant. Daarenboven wordt ook China met energietekorten geconfronteerd en verslechteren stijgende grondstofprijzen de handelsvoorwaarden, wat dan weer impact heeft op de exporten.
Hoewel de Bank of England naar alle waarschijnlijkheid zal starten met renteverhogingen, blijven de Fed en ECB wat meer dovish – uit angst dat een forse renteverhoging en liquiditeitsrestricties het toch al broze economische herstel zullen ondermijnen.
We nemen de impact van al deze elementen in dit rapport onder de loep door commentaar te geven op de evolutie van de valutamarkt.
Veel leesplezier,
Mattias, Anton, Fiorenzo en Jean-Luc
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