Découvrez nos prévisions FX pour décembre 2020.
Que l’on se soit attendu à un surcroît de volatilité dans les derniers mois de 2020 en raison des élections présidentielles américaines et de l'échéance imminente du Brexit s’avère être un euphémisme. La hausse des infections à la COVID-19, mais aussi l'accélération du développement des vaccins ont entraîné d'importants mouvements de prix.
Dans ce contexte, c’est le dollar qui paie la facture. Un affaiblissement à l'approche de la victoire du président élu Joe Biden et trois lundis de nouvelles positives sur les vaccins ont conduit à un dépassement de l'EURUSD de la barre de 1,21, approchant de niveaux plus jamais vus depuis le milieu de la dernière décennie. Les taux d'intérêt réels négatifs aux États-Unis semblent ancrer cette faiblesse du dollar pendant un certain temps encore.
Nous ne saurons probablement pas ce qui va se passer dans le cadre du Brexit avant la fin de l'année, mais vous pourrez découvrir en long et en large le tour de force du yuan chinois et la reprise des devises des marchés émergents.
Bonne lecture,
Anton Pietermans
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